Revival Gathers Speed Except in Europe: Bloomberg Trade Tracker
July 16,2024
A string of indicators suggest a recovery in trade is taking hold almost everywhere outside of Europe, whose biggest economy is beset by a grim business outlook.
Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker showed the best reading in years, with nine of the 10 key measures of global commerce back in “normal” territory in June. Shipping volumes bounced back in Hong Kong’s ports, while export orders out of the US increased. An upturn in the tech sector, driven by the swift expansion of AI, ensured chips and electronics makers like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea maintained their momentum.
The only one left in the red was Germany, where business expectations worsened anew. Factories reported weak order books, while consumers remained cautious despite rising incomes and cooling inflation. Reports of company insolvencies and restructuring could also hit the labor market in Europe’s largest economy.
“A strong rebound for this year remains highly unlikely,” said Carsten Brzeski, head of macro research at ING Diba AG in Frankfurt. He added, “If one of the largest exporting economies is still not recovering, this is bad news for global trade.”
The setbacks in Germany add to looming obstacles for global commerce after the US raised levies on semiconductors and batteries from China — the latest front of the worsening trade war between the two economic giants. The European Union is set to follow with its own levies on China-made electric vehicles, which could prompt retaliatory measures on the bloc’s products such as brandy, pork and wine.
Despite the strong Trade Tracker readings in June, there could be limited upside ahead. “With the looming trade tensions between the EU and China, as well as the US and China, global trade will also have difficulties to gain more momentum this year,” Brzeski said.
We’ve selected measures across shipping, sentiment and export volumes to watch. For the clearest indication, we measured how far each gauge is from historic norms. These data update in real time from the Bloomberg Terminal as they’re reported.
Supply chains drive global trade. Stay informed with the latest developments in our Supply Lines newsletter, delivered weekdays.
